Tomorrow

As we wind down 2024, here’s a look at some of the key events affecting the economy and potential effects going forward.

By any definition, it has been quite a year. One of the most notable events was the decrease in U.S. inflation, down from about 9% to less than 3%. Even with the aggressive measures taken by the Federal Reserve to make it happen, a major downturn was avoided. In September, a rate cut was finally implemented, with others in November and December.

The U.S. elected a new president and, as always, the resulting changes will be neither as negative nor as positive as many fear/ hope. On balance, we expect moderate growth, with some shifts positive but others negative for business activity. We will track the various machinations in both directions.

Several additional countries saw leadership changes, and others may do so in the near future. Good news is coming out of some areas with regime changes, but challenges clearly remain in others (especially in Europe).

Tensions in the Middle East and elsewhere continued and often intensified throughout the year. Fortunately, a major escalation which would potentially cause not only loss of life but also disruptions to global energy markets has thus far been avoided. The Russia-Ukraine war persisted, with the death toll topping one million in 2024. These conflicts not only involve a huge human cost for those involved but also generate uncertainty around the world.

Some industries were hard hit by 2024 events, such as air travel and aircraft manufacturing where there were incidents of planes colliding on runways and door panels blowing off in flight. Although travelers essentially shrugged them off, there has been other fallout such as grounding planes, cutting routes, and massive losses throughout the supply chain.

Automakers dialed back EV plans in response to weak demand, with substantial layoffs at some companies. Several strikes also caused disruptions.

Despite these setbacks, rate cuts and the election led to stock market records. Markets were also boosted by technology firms, including both the usual major firms and newcomer Nvidia, which topped $3 trillion in valuation by midyear and is now among the most valuable U.S. companies.

April’s solar eclipse provided an unforgettable show and boosted travel and tourism along its path of totality, and the northern lights were dazzling. However, there were also hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, heat waves and floods around the globe. Recovery is ongoing, but much remains to be done.

Looking ahead, major 2024 events and the way we deal with them will continue to affect the economy, and this time next year, we will no doubt have much to discuss. Wishing you and yours all the best in 2025. Stay safe.